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On Monday ahead of the OPEC + summit oil quotes showed weak positive dynamics.

The price of November futures for Brent crude oil grew by 0.36% to $ 71.96 per barrel, October - by 0.5%, to $ 73.06. October futures on WTI rose in price by 0.22% to $ 68.89 per barrel. Market participants also continued to monitor the situation in the Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Ida took place over the weekend, which has already weakened to a tropical storm. More than 95% of oil production in the Gulf has been suspended, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Control (BSEE).

On Tuesday Reuters, referring to the OPEC Joint Technical Committee (JTC) document, prepared for the organization's September 1 meeting, announced that OPEC expects the oil deficit in the market to remain until the end of this year. However, already in 2022, the surplus of 2.5 million barrels per day is predicted. Under the baseline scenario, the JTC expects global oil demand to rise by 5.95 million barrels per day this year in line with the previous forecast and by 3.28 million barrels per day next year. An alternative scenario assumes that the oil market will have a surplus of 400,000 barrels per day in 2021 and 4.5 million barrels per day in 2022.

The OPEC + summit, held on Wednesday, ended with the organization's ministers not changing the plan approved in July to restore oil production, which provides for its monthly growth by 0.4 million barrels per day. The next time the participants of the meeting will gather on October 4. The Secretariat issued an official communique following the meeting, which says that the ministers "confirmed the decision to restore oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day for October," TASS reported on Wednesday, September 1. "We also agreed to extend the oil overproduction compensation plan until the end of 2021," the agency reports. According to the results of July, the OPEC + deal to reduce oil production showed 109% of the plan, according to the communique. The states of the OPEC + alliance have been increasing oil production since May. By September 2022, the oil production figures reduced in 2020 were planned to be fully restored.

The day after the summit, oil prices showed a slight increase. The price of November futures for Brent crude rose 0.70% to $ 72.09 per barrel. October futures on WTI rose 0.63% to $ 69.02 per barrel. In the morning oil prices dropped by 0.3-0.4%. Traders reacted to the results of the OPEC + meeting held on the eve of the meeting, as well as to the statistics on US oil reserves over the past week. The country's Ministry of Energy announced on Wednesday that commercial oil reserves in the country fell by 7.2 million barrels in the week through August 27 - to a minimum since September 2019 of 425.4 million.

Nevertheless, the week ended with negative dynamics. The main reason was the data on the US labor market, which turned out to be worse than expected. Unemployment in August in the country, as expected, decreased to 5.2% from the July level of 5.4%, but the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy increased by only 235 thousand, while the forecast of growth was 750 thousand. The indicators signal a slowdown in economic recovery, which also implies a decrease in oil demand.

 

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