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The past week began with serious negative dynamics.

The price of October futures for Brent crude oil fell 2.63% to $ 68.84 per barrel. September futures for WTI fell 2.72% to $ 66.42 per barrel. On Monday morning, the rate of decline in oil quotations reached 4%. The main reason was fears of a decrease in demand caused by tightening restrictions due to the coronavirus in China. China is the largest importer of oil, so quarantine measures imposed by the authorities, in particular restrictions on movement, pose a serious risk to oil demand.

On Tuesday the US Department of Energy raised the forecast for the average oil production in the country for the current year by 20 thousand barrels per day - to 11.12 million, and the forecast for next year was lowered by 80 thousand - to 11.77 million barrels per day. At the same time the forecast for the average price of North Sea Brent oil for the current year was slightly downgraded - to $ 68.71 per barrel from the previous $ 68.78. The EIA also lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent for next year - to $ 66.04 per barrel from $ 66.64. At the same time the EIA forecast for the average price of WTI crude oil for the current year has been raised to $ 65.93 per barrel against the July estimate of $ 65.85, and for 2022 it has been lowered to $ 62.37 per barrel from $ 62.97. The forecast for oil demand in the world at the end of 2021 remained unchanged and is expected to grow by 5.3 million barrels per day, while the forecast for 2022 was slightly lowered and now an increase of 3.6 million barrels per day is expected.

The next day Washington's statement that an increase in oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day was not enough immediately affected oil prices. The price of Brent crude at the August 11 auction fell by 2% in 7 minutes. The decline began at 14:09 from the level of $ 70.83 - by 14:16 the quotes dropped to $ 69.45. According to CNBC, Washington has called on OPEC countries and their allies to ramp up oil production in an attempt to contain rising gasoline prices.

Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand in 2021 and expects growth by 6 million barrels per day, predicting an increase in demand in 2022 by 3.3 million barrels. This is stated in the August report of the organization. Total global oil demand is projected to exceed 100 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022 and will average 99.9 million barrels per day in 2022. OPEC also notes that economic growth will accelerate amid massive government stimulus packages. In addition, the organization predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic will be kept under control with the support of vaccination programs and improved treatment, which will ensure sustained growth in oil demand in both the OECD and non-OECD countries.

The week ended with a decline, despite a slight increase during the day. The price of October futures for Brent crude oil fell by 0.87% - to 70.69 dollars per barrel, September futures for WTI - by 0.13%, to 68.53 dollars per barrel. The negative impact was exerted by the IEA's downgrade of the forecast for world oil demand in 2021.

 

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