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The past week began with a sharp drop in oil prices.

September Brent oil futures and August WTI futures fell 1.1% and 1.2%. The market began to fever a week earlier, when the information about the difficulties in the OPEC + negotiations appeared. The reason for the instability was the refusal of the United Arab Emirates to extend production limits for eight months. Many analysts predicted a rise in commodity prices; however, as is often the case, the price of oil went its own way and suddenly moved down. Now market experts are putting forward the version that the disagreements in the cartel will lead to uncontrolled oil production, which will oversaturate the market.

Nevertheless, the very next day oil quotes started to grow. The price of September futures for Brent grew by 1.02% - to 75.94 dollars per barrel, August futures for WTI - by 0.89%, to 74.76 dollars per barrel. The focus of traders' attention on Tuesday was the IEA's July report. In it, the agency retained its forecast for global oil demand in 2021 - it is still expected to grow by 5.4 million barrels per day. In 2022, an increase of 3 million barrels per day is expected. In addition, the IEA noted that the lack of new agreements on the OPEC + deal keeps the volatility in the oil market. The OPEC + alliance at two meetings in early July was unable to agree on further terms of the deal due to the position of the UAE. The third meeting has been canceled and a new one has not yet been scheduled. Production quotas are still at current levels.

The growth on Tuesday gave way to an impressive fall on Wednesday. The price of September futures for Brent crude oil fell by 3.32% - to $ 73.95 per barrel, August futures for WTI - by 3.8%, to $ 72.99 per barrel. The main reason for the negative dynamics was the statistics of the US Department of Energy. According to the ministry, oil production in the country, as well as stocks of gasoline and distillates, increased in the week to July 9. Thus, production increased by 100 thousand barrels per day and amounted to 11.4 million barrels per day. Gasoline stocks in the United States for the week increased by 1 million barrels, distillates - by 3.7 million barrels. At the same time, commercial oil reserves in the country during the period decreased by 7.9 million barrels, to 437.6 million barrels. Analysts had expected a decline of only 4.4 million barrels. Investors also drew attention to the news around the OPEC + deal. Bloomerg reported, citing some sources, that the UAE and OPEC have reached a compromise on the OPEC + deal, according to which the country's base production level will be increased to 3.65 million barrels per day starting in May 2022, and the OPEC + deal will be extended until the end of 2022 of the year. The agency later reported that the UAE and OPEC + did not reach an agreement on the deal, negotiations are ongoing.

The negative dynamics intensified on Thursday. This time, the market was pressured by data on the spread of the COVID-19 delta strain. Traders saw them as a threat to the economic recovery and, accordingly, the demand for fuel.

At the end of the week, the Swedish edition of Svenska Dagbladet published an amusing piece about a possible halving of oil consumption in the next thirty years. , which, according to the authors, will be the death sentence for oil. “Suddenly, the three political centers of the world - the EU, the United States and China - moved in the same direction. The motivation“ we want to save the world ”was replaced by the motivation“ we want to be competitive, ”the article says. World oil demand will peak between 2025 and 2030, and then there will only be a decline.

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