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The first full trading week in 2021 began with a meeting of the OPEC + ministers and an increase in oil prices.

The cost of March futures for Brent crude on the London ICE stock exchange rallied 1.62% to $ 52.64 per barrel. The main goal of the OPEC + ministerial meeting was to determine the level of oil production for February. At the previous meeting, on December 3, 2020, they agreed to gradually restore production of raw materials, starting in January, in a volume of no more than 0.5 million barrels per day per month. Moreover, each subsequent increase must be approved at a separate meeting. In total, OPEC + plans to restore oil production by almost 2 million b / d during the first months of 2021. In May, when the implementation of the deal began, the countries reduced their oil production by 9.7 million bpd, since August this quota softened to 7.7 million bpd.

This time, the negotiations were not easy. As a result of an online discussion that lasted for almost 6 hours, the ministers of the largest exporting countries of black gold were unable to reach a consensus. The stumbling block was the position of Russia, which almost single-handedly insisted on increasing supplies by 500 thousand barrels per day from February. Saudi Arabia advocated freezing current volumes for at least February due to the threat from a new strain of coronavirus, which already caused restrictions on flights in Europe. The Saudis' position was supported by most of the OPEC + countries, including the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Nigeria, Malaysia and Oman. Unable to find a compromise, the ministers decided to continue negotiations on Tuesday 5 January. This proposal was expressed by the Minister of Energy of Azerbaijan, he was supported by the Saudi delegation.

The next day, Tuesday, the participants in the meeting managed to come to an agreement. Now the countries of the alliance are cutting production by 7.2 million barrels per day. However, Russia and Kazakhstan will be able to increase it by 75 thousand barrels per day in February and March in the proportion of 65 thousand and 10 thousand barrels per day. This increase in production will be absorbed by a proportional and voluntary production cut by Saudi Arabia. The next meeting is scheduled for early March.

On Wednesday, oil quotes received a new stimulus - the publication of data from the US Department of Energy on the reduction of oil reserves in the country. The price of March futures for North Sea Brent crude oil rose by 1.18% - to $ 54.23 per barrel, February futures on WTI - by 0.86%, to $ 50.36 per barrel. The US Department of Energy released data, according to which oil reserves in the United States over the past week fell by 8 million barrels, to 485.5 million barrels against the forecast of a decline of 2.1 million barrels. In addition, oil production in the United States did not change for the fourth week, remaining at 11 million barrels per day.

The growth continued on Thursday, but much slower. Analysts believe that the oil and oil products market is still oversaturated. This is evidenced by the growing stocks of gasoline and distillers.

On Friday, Brent crude rose above $ 55 per barrel for the first time since February 26, 2020. In general, oil expectations remain optimistic due to forecasts for supply and demand in the market. Thus, investors expect economic recovery this year amid stimulus measures, which has a positive effect on the prospects for oil demand.

 

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