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Last week "vaccine optimism" continued on the oil market.

Global oil prices accelerated Monday's rise to 4% on optimism over news of the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine from US Moderna. The price of December futures for North Sea Brent crude oil rose by 4.07% to $ 44.52 per barrel, December futures for WTI crude oil - by 4.04% to $ 41.75 per barrel. Moderna announced that the interim results of the third phase of trials of its COVID-19 vaccine showed an effectiveness of 94.5%. A week earlier Pfizer and BioNTech reported successful vaccine trials.

On Tuesday a meeting of the OPEC + ministerial monitoring committee was held, it considered four scenarios for the development of the oil market in 2021 with various options for limiting oil production. The first two scenarios assume that the agreement to cut oil production is being implemented according to the original plan, that is, from January 1, 2021, OPEC + participants will restore production by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd). In this case, oil reserves of OECD countries will continue to decline, but will still exceed the five-year average by 125 million barrels. If the impact of the pandemic is more severe for demand, then OPEC + admits an increase in reserves up to 470 million barrels above the target. At the same time, the market may have an oversupply of 1.9 million bpd. If the restrictions are extended until the end of the first quarter of 2021, oil reserves of developed countries will exceed the norm by only 73 million barrels, and the market will have a deficit of an average of 0.9 million b / d. A longer production cut under the current plan - until the end of the first half of 2021 - will lead to reserves exceeding the norm by only 21 million barrels. And the oil deficit on the market can reach an average of 1.4 million bpd. Following the meeting, the OPEC + countries agreed to continue studying the situation with supply and demand on the market in the IV quarter of 2020 and to consider their further actions on the global oil market in 2021 during the next ministerial conference of the OPEC and non-OPEC countries, scheduled for 1 December 2020, according to a press release from the Russian government. The committee noted that between May and October, participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries reduced production by about 1.6 billion barrels, including voluntary cuts in a number of countries, and also offset 768 thousand barrels per day of previously exceeded production volumes. "This led to the achievement of a 99.5% level of fulfillment of obligations under the transaction since May," the statement said. "The Committee expressed its appreciation to the participating countries, especially the UAE and Angola, which have shown results that exceed all expectations, while reaffirming the critical importance of compliance with full compliance and compensation for overproduction in order to achieve the goal of market rebalancing and avoid undue delay in the process," statement. The next technical committee (JTC) and ministerial committee (JMMC) meetings are scheduled for December 16 and 17, 2020, respectively.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the UAE is considering the idea of ​​leaving the OPEC + alliance. According to agency sources, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been on the rise since late summer, when the UAE increased oil production in excess of the quota stipulated in the OPEC + agreement, prompting warnings against the state. Now the situation has worsened against the background of growing dissatisfaction with the UAE with the distribution of quotas - the government considers it unfair. At the same time, it is noted that the official representatives of the UAE have not publicly signaled that the state is planning to withdraw from OPEC +. The agency also notes that reports of the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC + appeared at a very difficult moment. With the coronavirus pandemic threatening demand, any sign of cracks in the alliance could disrupt the fragile oil market.

Nevertheless, the week ended with the growth of quotations. The cost of futures for Brent crude oil for January delivery on the ICE exchange in London rose 1.86% to the level of the previous trading session and reached $ 45.02 per barrel.

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