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Oil quotes began last week with strong growth after statements by the Minister of Energy of the UAE Suhel al-Mazrui on the fulfillment by OPEC + of the agreement.

The price of August futures for North Sea crude oil Brent rose 2.35% to $ 39.64 per barrel; July futures for WTI crude oil rose 1.9% to $ 36.95 per barrel. At the same time on Monday morning oil prices showed a decrease but investors' expectations regarding a drop in oil demand due to the risks of the “second wave” of coronavirus that prevailed in the market during the day gave way to confidence in limiting the supply of this raw material at the market. According to Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group, quoted by Reuters, al-Mazrui’s statement removed the tension in the market, which was triggered by fear of coronavirus.

On Tuesday the situation repeated itself. The morning began with a decline in quotations, during the day the dynamics changed and oil prices moved up. The price of August futures for North Sea Brent crude oil rose 1.69% to $ 40.39 per barrel. July futures for WTI crude oil rose 1.56% to $ 37.7 per barrel. In the morning the IEA’s June report was published, in which the estimate of the drop in oil demand in 2020 was reduced to 8.1 million barrels per day compared with the previous forecast of 8.6 million barrels per day. The organization also predicts an increase in global oil demand in 2021 by 5.7 million barrels per day - a record year-on-year increase. However, the oil market is still worrying about the prospects for the second wave of COVID-19, which could provoke an even greater drop in oil demand.

These fears, in the end, caused a sharp drop in prices the next day. China, one of the world's leading consumers of raw materials, has decided to temporarily suspend classes at schools and universities in Beijing. Another negative factor was the growth of stocks in the United States to a record level.

The next day OPEC June report was released, in which the values of the forecast for the fall in oil demand in 2020 at the level of 9.1 million bps were preserved. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait reduced oil production by 5.5 million bps in May, but OPEC fulfilled the Vienna Agreement by 84%. Oil reserves in OECD countries Commercial oil reserves in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in April grew by almost 4%, to 3.069 billion barrels. This is almost 141 million barrels higher than the average over the past 5 years.

At the end of the week the meeting of the OPEC + Ministerial Monitoring Committee had a positive effect on the prices of petroleum products and gave investors the hope for an early recovery in demand. The price of oil on Friday began to grow rapidly relative to the closing level of previous trading, futures for North Sea Brent crude oil for delivery on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by almost 0.9% and rose to $ 41.87 per barrel. WTI crude oil also increased in price at electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange - raw materials went up by 0.98% and are now valued at $ 39.22 per barrel.

 

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