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The week began with slight increase in the US stock market, investors again watched conflicting reports of US-Chinese trade negotiations.

CNBC Beijing correspondent Eunice Yun wrote on Twitter that Chinese officials are pessimistic about the prospects for a US-China trade deal. According to a government source, China is worried about President Trump’s statements that the US will not abolish tariffs, as they believed that both sides had already agreed on this. Beijing's current strategy is to negotiate, but to wait in view of events such as impeachment and US elections. This message contradicted China’s state-run media reports over the weekend that China and the US were engaged in “constructive” trade negotiations. In addition, market participants drew attention to data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), which indicated that the confidence of American homeowners fell slightly in November. According to the data, the NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 70 in November after rising to 71 in October. Economists had expected the index to rise to 72. A modest decline occurred after the housing market index rose for four consecutive months and was at the highest level since reaching the corresponding value in February 2018.
On Tuesday, the indices started to decline due to the fall in shares of retailers such as Home Depot (HD, - 5.39%) and Kohl's (KSS, - 19.43%). The reason was the disappointing worsened forecasts for the whole of 2019, which put pressure on the entire sector. Market participants also analyzed data from the Commerce Department, which indicated that US housing construction recovered in October. According to the data, housing construction increased by 3.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.314 million units, while single-family house construction has been growing for the fifth month in a row, and activity in the unstable multi-family sector is confidently recovering. September data was revised to 1.266 million units from 1.256 million units. Economists forecast housing construction to rise to 1.320 million.
The next day, moderate decline continued, the reason again was the situation with trade negotiations between the US and China. The WSJ, citing former Trump administration officials, said ongoing trade negotiations could be at an impasse that could disrupt the signing of the first phase of the deal. Uncertainty surrounding trade also grew after the US Senate passed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong. This has led China to accuse the US of meddling in internal affairs. Market participants also analyzed the protocol of the October meeting of the Fed, which reported that central bankers saw a significant risk that a slowdown in global GDP would harm the US economy. Participants in the meeting also pointed to the weak growth of the world economy and the moderate growth rate of prices around the world as a source of risk for inflation prospects in the USA. Some executives see low rates and inflation in the United States as temporary. In addition, some participants in the meeting noted a decrease in the likelihood of a recession in the medium term.
On Thursday, the decline continued, the main reasons remained the same. In addition, the dynamics of the market was influenced by data from the USA. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said that in October home sales on the secondary market rose 1.9%, to an annual rate of 5.46 million, after falling to 5.360 million in September. Economists had expected sales to rise to 5.47 million from the 5.38 million originally reported in the previous month. The recovery in sales in the secondary housing market was mainly driven by strong growth in the South, where existing home sales rose 4.4% to 2.350 million. Midwestern home sales also rose 1.6%, while home sales in the Northeast and the West fell 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively.
The week ended with a slight increase, as investors evaluated data on business activity in the United States. The market was supported by data from IHS Markit, which showed that business growth in the US accelerated in November. The seasonally adjusted composite business activity index rose to 51.9 in November from 50.9 in October to signal the fastest expansion of private sector production since July. In addition, a Reuters / Michigan report showed that consumer sentiment in the US improved in November much more than anticipated. According to the report released by the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment index for November was revised up to 96.8 from a preliminary value of 95.7. The revised value was much higher than the final October value of 95.5.

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