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Last week began with the development of the situation with the possible membership of Brazil in OPEC.

The organization’s secretary general, Mohammed Barkindo, told reporters on the sidelines of the ADIPEC oil and gas conference that Brazil could attend the OPEC + meeting in Vienna on December 6 to discuss alliance production levels beyond March 2020.

In late October, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaru said at the Future Investment Initiative forum that Brazil wants to become a member of OPEC, but there is no solution yet, it needs to be discussed. At the same time, he clarified that he must first consult with the ministers of economy and energy. Brazil participated in OPEC + technical consultations in 2016. However, after several meetings, Brazilian representatives said that the country does not intend to reduce oil production, since, on the contrary, they plan launching several promising projects. Brazil produces about 2.8 million barrels of oil per day.

Meanwhile, the upcoming OPEC meeting is already at the center of discussions of analysts. Bloomberg noted that although only a few weeks were left before the meeting, OPEC and its partners did not show signs of readiness for more decisive steps to maintain oil prices. Some experts are seriously considering the possibility of a collapse in the oil market early next year in the event of a new excess supply. Oil, now trading in London at around $ 62, could fall by almost 30% to $ 45 a barrel if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Allies do not announce a deeper reduction in production, analysts at Morgan Stanley said.

Experts from Citigroup Inc. and BNP Paribas SA forecast quotes to fall to $ 50. Such a development will aggravate the situation of OPEC countries such as Venezuela, Iran and Iraq, which are already experiencing an economic crisis and political protests. The collapse in prices will affect the entire industry, including the US shale boom, which brought the country to the world leaders in oil production. There is an opinion that at the moment, the expectation of an IPO Saudi Aramco keeps from falling oil prices. A lot of people are interested in the successful placement of the company, including, of course, banks, so all the efforts have been devoted to maintaining relatively high oil prices.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries itself is very likely to sharply worsen the forecast for 2020 for oil production by countries outside the cartel. In particular, we are talking about reducing the volume of shale oil supplies from the United States. At the same time, it is possible to increase the forecast for the growth rate of oil demand, especially if the United States and China sign a preliminary trade agreement. According to the OPEC long-term forecast, in 2019 oil demand is expected to reach 99.9 million barrels per day, and in 2020 - 101 million barrels. Gradually, demand will grow and in 2023 will reach 103.9 million barrels per day. OPEC previously stated that oil demand in developed countries will decrease by 9.6 million barrels per day by 2040, while in developing countries, on the contrary, it will grow by 21.4 million barrels per day. OPEC's demand growth rate will gradually slow down from 1.4 million barrels per day in 2018 to 0.5 million barrels per day at the end of the next decade. At the same time, the growth may stop completely by 2040, OPEC believes. The experts of the organization explain this dynamics by the slowdown in the Earth’s population and global GDP. Tightening energy efficiency standards and technological progress will also contribute.

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