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Last week began with conflicting forecasts from the first persons of OPEC.

Firstly, Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said that in 2020 the oil market may show positive growth, and thus market participants may have doubts about the need to tighten restrictions on the oil production of the OPEC + group. Not later than in October, Barkindo announced that any option for the development of the situation, including tightening restrictions on oil production, is possible. But during the last interview, he said that now the overall picture looks more optimistic. He also noted that OPEC would readily accept Brazil into its ranks, but so far no formal statement has been received from the South American power.

The very next day, the OPEC annual report came out, which states that global oil demand will fall in the foreseeable future due to the development of alternative energy sources, reduced economic growth and environmental concerns in developed countries. The authors point out the reasons for the decline in economic growth reflected in the forecasts of financiers, the growing momentum of environmental movements in many countries, as well as the development of alternative energy sources. The example is the electric car market, which by 2040 will have to make up about 26 percent of all cars in the world. The production of OPEC 14 members will be reduced in the coming years, largely due to the active growth of American producers of shale oil. Its production has become profitable due to higher prices for traditional oil. So, by 2024, it will amount to 32.8 million barrels per day (compared to 35 million in 2019).

Meanwhile, the largest producers of the OPEC + group do not insist too much on tightening voluntary restrictions on oil production. The organization is more likely to direct efforts to encourage participants to adhere more strictly to limits. OPEC expects that during the first half of next year the market will be oversaturated, and oil prices are already lower than the level required by the parties to the agreement in order to balance their budgets. Morgan Stanley, Commerzbank AG and Rystad Energy AS believe that due to these circumstances, OPEC should increase oil production restrictions.

OPEC + has not yet developed action scenarios to tighten restrictions. Such decisions will be made at the meeting to be held in Vienna on December 5 and 6.
At the end of the week, the information came from analysts that the IPO expected by the end of this year of the world's largest oil company Saudi Aramco will not have direct impact on oil prices. At the same time, the largest scale placement in world history can affect the stock prices of oil companies around the world. Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, announced plans to sell a minority stake in Saudi Aramco, which is the largest in the world in terms of production and hydrocarbon reserves. The proceeds from the sale of a small share of the company should go towards the implementation of the Kingdom’s reform plan, the goal of which is to get rid of oil dependence, he said.

Since then, the placement of papers has been repeatedly postponed, it was assumed that it could happen in 2020-2021. The transfer of listing by the Saudi authorities was associated with the implementation of a major transaction, in which Aramco acquired 70% of the Saudi petrochemical giant Sabic from the sovereign fund of the Kingdom of PIF for $ 69 billion. However, in the second half of this year, mass media reported that the placement would take place in the near future. Finally, on November 3, the Saudi Capital Market Authority officially announced that a portion of Aramco's shares would be listed on the Tadawul National Exchange. According to Reuters, the offering price may be announced on December 4, and trading will begin on December 11.

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