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Last week began with a neutral trend in the US stock market.

The fall in the conglomerate sector offset the positive data on the activity in the US manufacturing sector, which strengthened investor confidence in the strength of the US economy. The latest IHS Markit report showed that US private sector output increased in September, with growth rates slightly outstripping the August reading. The seasonally adjusted composite PMI index rose to 51.0 in September, up from 50.7 in the previous month. The last reading was much lower than the average for the last decade (55.0). The seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI index recovered slightly - to 51.0 in September, compared with 50.3 in August and this is the highest since April.

On Tuesday, the market showed steady negative dynamics due to the situation with trade relations between the US and China and the disappointing data on consumer confidence in the United States. In addition, the focus was on the story of the impeachment procedure of Donald Trump. Trump confirmed that he had ordered $ 400 million in military assistance for Ukraine to be frozen, but denied that he had done so as a leverage to force the president of Ukraine to launch an investigation that could harm Democratic rival Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that China has granted several companies new permits to purchase at least 2 million tons of soybeans in the United States without applying tariffs. According to the agency, the company has already bought about 1.2 million tons of soybeans. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin has confirmed that trade negotiations between the two largest economies in the world will resume next month. Regarding the data, the Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence index fell sharply in September after it recorded a slight decline in August. According to the report, the index now stands at 125.1 (1985 = 100), compared with 134.2 in August (revised from 135.1). Analysts had expected the index to drop to 133.5. The current situation index, based on consumers' assessment of the current business and labor market conditions, fell from 176.0 to 169.0, while the expectations index, based on short-term consumer forecasts regarding income, business and labor market conditions, fell from 106.4 to 95.8.

The next day, major US stock indexes rose significantly after Trump's announcement that a trade agreement with China could be concluded earlier than expected. The market was also supported by the August data on sales of new buildings in the United States and Nike (NKE) company reports that exceeded expectations. A report by the Ministry of Commerce showed that new home sales rose 7.1% in August, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000 units, helped by a surge in activity in the South and West. July sales were revised to 666,000 units from the previously announced 635,000 units. Economists predicted that sales of new homes will increase to 660,000 units.

On Thursday, the main US stock indices fell slightly, as the increasing political uncertainty in the United States outweighed optimism about trade. The U.S. House of representatives Intelligence Committee released the text of an unnamed employee complaint alleging that President Trump used his power to “ask for foreign intervention” in the 2020 presidential election. Meanwhile, China's Commerce Department said it maintains close ties with the United States and is gearing up for success in the October trade talks. Investors also analyzed several important macroeconomic reports. Thus, the report of the Ministry of Commerce showed that in the second quarter, gross domestic product grew by 2.0% (unchanged from preliminary estimates), since the highest consumer spending in 4-1 / 2 years offset the weak export and slower rate of investment in stocks. The economy grew by 3.1% in January-March. In the first half of the year, GDP grew by 2.6%. Meanwhile, a report by the National Association of Realtors showed that the pending home sales index rose 1.6% in August, to 107.3, after falling 2.5% in June. Economists expected the index to rise by 0.3%.

The week ended with a slight decline due to reports that the White House is considering limiting US investment in China. According to Bloomberg, one of the possible ways to reduce investment that the White House is weighing is to exclude Chinese companies from US stock exchanges and limit the investment participation of Americans in the Chinese market through state pension funds. This announcement reinforced concerns about possible exacerbation of the protracted trade war between Washington and Beijing.

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