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Last Monday, there was a notable increase in the US stock market following statements by US President Donald Trump that China wants to close a deal, signaling about potential de-escalation of trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world.

At G7 meeting in France, while talking to reporters, Trump reiterated his view that China wants to close a deal with the United States, and believes that they are sincere in this desire. Market participants also drew attention to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, which showed an increase in orders for durable goods in July by 2.1% after a revision downward by 1.8% in June.

On Tuesday, the main US stock indices went down while investors analyzed the latest movements around the trade war between Washington and Beijing. Comments by officials of the two largest economies in the world signaled a potential convergence after the escalation of trade tensions over the weekend. The chief editor of the Global Times questioned Trump’s statements about the call of Chinese representatives to the US Department of Commerce asking for a return to the dialogue. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also confirmed that recently it has not received a single call from the United States on trade issues.

The next day, the market returned to growth, thanks to the increase in oil prices, which caused an increase in energy sector shares. A constraining factor was the movements in the bond market, which heightened fears of a recession due to the ongoing fierce trade war between the US and China. At the same time, the spread between the yield of 10-year and 2-year US government bonds fell for a short time to -6 basis points on Wednesday, the lowest level since 2007, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds reached a record low. Corporate reporting also had a certain impact on the market. Autodesk (ADSK), a software development company, crashed almost 7% as it lowered its forecast for the full year. On the contrary, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares jumped 3.4% after the company announced that it had exceeded expectations for quarterly earnings.

On Thursday, the positive dynamics became even more intense. Gao Feng, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, said the two sides are discussing the next round of talks scheduled for September, and China hopes US officials can cancel the imposition of additional tariffs to avoid escalating trade tensions. In addition, he also made it clear that China would not immediately respond to planned tariffs. In addition, the focus was on a whole block of macroeconomic data. A Department of Commerce report showed that the US economy slowed down a bit more than originally expected, as the strongest growth in consumer spending over 4.5 years was offset by declining exports and smaller stocks. According to the report, GDP grew in the second quarter by 2.0% per annum compared with the initial estimate of 2.1%. The economy grew by 3.1% in January-March. In the first half of the year, GDP grew by 2.6%. Downward revision was in line with expectations. At the same time, the report of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed that the index of pending home sales transactions fell in July by 2.5%, to 105.6 points. Economists predicted that the index would remain unchanged.

The week ended with predominant growth, the main reason again was the optimism of investors about the development of trade relations between China and the United States. Reuters reported that the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Friday that negotiators from China and the United States are constantly “effective contacts,” as the two countries are trying to close a deal. Investors also received additional positive signs that the US economy remains stable. Data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that consumer spending in July rose 0.6% after rising 0.3% in June. Economists forecasted consumer spending growth of 0.5%. Nevertheless, one should not expect that the growth rate of consumption will continue, as incomes grow slowly. In July, consumer incomes increased by only 0.1% after a revised upward increase of 0.5% in the previous month. Economists forecasted the growth of 0.3%.

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