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Earlier this week, US stock markets fell mainly, as the increase in the base materials sector could not outweigh the fall in stocks of Internet giants Alphabet (GOOG), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN) due to fears of toughening industry regulation.

The market was also pressured by continued unrest over the trade dispute between the United States and China and a slowdown in production growth. The market participants also drew attention to the latest ISM data, which showed that the PMI index for the manufacturing sector fell in May to 52.1 points from 52.8 points in April. The latter value was the lowest since October 2016. Analysts had expected the figure to rise to 53.0 points. At the same time, some reassurance to the markets was brought by a statement by Mexican officials that the country could reach an agreement with the US to resolve the migration dispute, which prompted President Donald Trump to threaten duties last week. Certain influence on the dynamics of trading was also made by statements by Fed representative Bullard, who noted that lowering the rate "may become justified in the near future" amid trading and inflation risks.

On Tuesday, the market experienced strong growth against the backdrop of heightened hopes for lowering the Fed rates and signs of weakening trade tensions. Fed Chairman Powell made it clear that the Central Bank is open to monetary policy easing in order to save the economy. According to him, the Fed will "act properly" to support economic growth. Powell noted, however, that the Fed does not know “how or when” the trade conflict will be resolved. The official statements of Mexico and China also provided market support. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he expects to negotiate with the United States on immigration before Washington realizes its threat of introducing tariffs. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that “differences and friction between the two parties” should be resolved through negotiations, which “should be based on mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit.” On Wall Street, these statements were taken as a sign that Beijing had weakened harsh rhetoric.

On Wednesday, the growth rate declined slightly, as disappointing data on employment in the US private sector increased the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates to counter the potential slowdown in the economy. The ADP and Moody's Analytics report showed that in May, employment in the private sector grew by only 27,000, after increasing by 271,000 jobs in April. Economists had expected an increase of 180,000 jobs. May result was the worst since March 2010. The disappointing data raised expectations that the US central bank would cut interest rates by at least 75 basis points by the end of the year. Market participants also drew attention to data from ISM, which indicated an unexpected improvement in business activity in the services sector in May. According to the data presented, the business activity index in the US service sector rose to 56.9 points in May from 55.5 points in April. Analysts predicted that the index will remain at the level of 55.5 points

On Thursday, the major US stock indices increased markedly, as hopes for a decline in the Fed's rates eased fears of a further escalation of the trade war with China after the last comments by the US president. Trump said he would decide on additional tariffs for Chinese imports “probably immediately after the G-20.” He made this statement after threatening to introduce tariffs on imports of Chinese goods for another $ 300 billion. Investors also analyzed statistical data on the United States. According to the Ministry of Labor, the initial applications for unemployment benefits did not change and amounted to 218,000, taking into account seasonal fluctuations for the week ending June 1. The data for the previous week was revised to show 3000 requests received more than previously reported. Economists predicted that the number of applications will remain unchanged at 215,000. Recent data suggests that the labor market remains in good condition, despite a slowdown in economic activity.

The week ended with steady growth. The disappointing labor market data increased the likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts, while the US decision to postpone the introduction of tariffs on Chinese goods helped ease concerns about trade. A report from the Ministry of Labor showed that the number of people employed outside the agricultural sector increased by 75,000 jobs in May, after rising by 224,000 jobs in April. Economists had expected employment to increase by about 185,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in May was 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month and in line with economists' estimates.

 

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