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On Monday trading on the US stock market was not conducted due to a public holiday.

After the start of trading on Tuesday the indices moved down and ended the session in the red. The main reason for the drop in quotations in almost all sectors was once again the fear of a protracted trade war between the United States and China. US President Donald Trump said Monday that the US is “not ready” to conclude a trade deal with China, but then added that he expects to conclude a trade agreement in the future. He also said that tariffs on imports from China could increase significantly. The mood of investors slightly improved the data on consumer confidence index. The Conference Board report showed that the US consumer confidence index improved in May to 134.1 from 129.2 in April. Analysts expected the index to grow only to 130.0. On the other hand, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed that in May the business activity of Texas producers deteriorated sharply, contrary to the forecasted increase. According to the report, the manufacturing index of the Dallas Fed in May fell to -5.3 points from 2.0 points in April. Analysts expected the increase to 5.8.

On Wednesday the decline continued because of China’s signals of readiness for a further escalation of the trade war with the United States. The Xinhua news agency reported that China is ready to use rare earth metals, a group of 17 elements widely used in many industries - from high-tech consumer electronics to military equipment - to put pressure on the US in a trade war. In addition, the Chinese Huawei Technologies Co Ltd filed a petition for a simplified review of its claim to the US government, demanding to recognize the unconstitutional and reject the State Defense Act 2019 (NDAA), which prohibits federal agencies to buy Huawei products that threaten to oust it from world markets.

The next day, the market moved to a slight increase. Market participants analyzed a block of important macroeconomic data. The report by the Department of Commerce showed that US economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, but there are signs that temporary growth in exports and the accumulation of stocks are already weakening, and production in factories is slowing down. US GDP in the first quarter grew by 31% year on year, the government reported in the second reading of the GDP report. In the period from October to December, the economic growth was 2.2%. While the government reduced its initial estimate for investment in stocks, export growth has been boosted. These two volatile components were key drivers of GDP growth in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pointed to an unexpected reduction in pending home sales in April. According to the report, the index of pending home sales fell in April by 1.5% to 104.3, after rising 3.9% in March (revised from + 3.8%) to 105.9. Economists had expected the index to grow by 0.9%.

The week ended in negative territory. The US president said on Twitter on Thursday that on June 10, the United States would impose a 5 percent tariff on all goods imported from Mexico. He also added that the duties will increase until the flow of illegal migrants from this country stops. The last threat to Trump reinforced the negative mood of investors, who have already been suppressed by the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China. Against this background, the yield on US government bonds fell to new multi-month lows, while the yield curve (the yield on three-month bonds "minus" the yield on a 10-year bond) remains strongly inverted. The inversion in the yield curve is considered by some market participants as an indicator that a recession is likely in one to two years.

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