Bitcoin continues to surrender. There are two objective reasons that hinder the growth of this crypto currency: the approach of the Chinese New Year, which begins on February 16 and the absence of a positive news background. In recent weeks, more and more countries have announced restrictive and prohibitive measures related to both mining and bitcoin turnover. The position of central banks majority is quite similar and consider to fact that they are not ready to accept bitcoin as a means of payment and it’s becoming more and more obvious. The approach of the Chinese new year makes Chinese players go out of bitcoin to get the fiat money to buy gifts. These factors will continue to put pressure on the crypto currency market until February 16. Only from the middle of February it is necessary to count on cautious growth to lost heights. The question remains as how much bitcoin can lose during next 10 days. Most likely we will see a decline to psychological marks of 5,000 usd per coin or even more. In my opinion, the fall will be deeper and I expect bitcoin at the level of 3,000 usd apiece by February 16. Despite the fact that the relative strength index (RSI) speaks of the oversoldness of bitcoin, the average directional movement index (ADX) still shows a strong bearish movement, which has the potential for strengthening. Break through the middle line of the price channel will force players to disperse the price towards the lower boundary of the trend, which rests on the psychological level of 5,000 usd per bitcoin. Correction is likely to be in the form of a small consolidation in the lateral movement to the middle line of the channel, where it is again expected sells to 3 000 usd. Within the same year, confusion and disappointment in the market will be the main factor restraining the growth of bitcoin and other crypto-currencies. Most likely, bitcoin will not be able to overcome the mark of 10 000 usd in 2018.



Alexander Hoggarth, Bulltraders.com senior analyst

 

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