The new year 2018 began with a noticeable increase in oil quotations, one of the reasons for which were the manifestations in Iran.

In many cities of the country, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Rasht, mass actions of social protest began on December 28. President of the Islamic Republic Hassan Rouhani said that discontent is caused by internal problems in the state, as well as by incitement from other countries. According to media reports, at least 20 people became victims of protests. Analysts at the Schork Report believe that the riots in Iran paved the way for the optimistic beginning of 2018 in the oil market. Oil brands Brent and WTI for the first time since 2014 began the year with a price exceeding $ 60 per barrel.

On Tuesday afternoon, there was a slight corrective decline, but soon the growth continued. Most analysts associate positive dynamics with the events in Iran, although the prerequisites for changing the situation on the oil market could be observed even last year. OPEC and a number of non-member countries in late 2016 agreed to cut oil production from the level of October of the same year, totaling 1.8 million barrels per day, of which 300,000 are in Russia. The agreement was first concluded for the first half of 2017, then extended until the end of March 2018, and then until the end of 2018. However, the participants of the agreement do not exclude the revision of its parameters in June. In December, for the first time in 2.5 years, reached a mark of $ 66 per barrel of Brent brand, having overcome the shock drop of 2014-2015.

The second half of 2017 in general became indicative for oil quotations. The first sharp jump in oil price, immediately at $ 2, was in late September in less than a day, rising to $ 59 per barrel of Brent against the background of the conflict between Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan. In November, on the eve of the extension of the OPEC + deal, quotations for the first time since July 2015 rose to $ 60, and in late December, oil overcame a mark of $ 66 after the explosion of the oil pipeline in Libya.

As for the forecasts for 2018, for example, the US Energy Ministry expects that the price of Brent will be about $ 57 per barrel. WTI will be cheaper by $ 4. As for the level of consumption, according to the version of the Ministry of Energy, it will grow by 1.6%, to 99.96 million b / s. The consumption is projected to be above 100 million b / s starting from III quarter. Meanwhile, production will grow to 100 million b / s already in the II quarter. Deficiency in the global oil market, according to analysts of the Ministry of Energy of the United States, will be observed only in the III quarter due to the sharp increase in demand. At the same time, the agency predicts an increase in oil production in the US in 2018 to 10 million b / s, against an average of 9.2 million b / s in 2017. American oil shale producers are the main driver of production growth, which is one of the main risks for the oil dynamics in 2018.

 

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