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Opinión de los expertos

17 Feb 19:03 Waiting for US - China agreement

The past week began with mixed dynamics as market participants held a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting news on progress, both in trade negotiations between the US and China, and in the matter of financing the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico. On the eve, the Axios publication reported with reference to two administration officials that the advisers to President Trump informally discussed the possibility of holding a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month at Trump’s private club in Florida. In addition, White House senior adviser Kelliann Conway said that Trump may meet with the Chinese leader in the near future. These messages brought some relief to the market after Trump announced that he did not plan to meet with Xi Jinping until March, while White House Economic Adviser Larry Koudlow noted that China and the US still have a lot of work to do before they make a deal.

On Tuesday, there was significant increase in the stock market, thanks to the news that US lawmakers made a preliminary deal to finance border security. Improving the prospects for trade between the United States and China also supported stocks. In addition, the vacancy and labor turnover review (JOLTS), published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that in December, the number of vacancies increased to 7.335 million from 7.166 million in November (revised from 6.888 million). The latter value represents the new cyclical maximum. It was expected that the number of vacancies will fall to 6.9 million

The next day the growth continued, albeit at a more moderate pace. Major US stock indexes rose slightly amid expectations that the United States and China could make a deal during ongoing trade negotiations. Market participants also studied inflation data for January. The report from the Department of Labor showed that consumer prices in the United States did not change in January for the third month in a row. Economists expected consumer prices to rise 0.1%. On annualized basis, consumer price index growth was 1.6%, which is lower than the previous value of 1.9%, but 1.5% higher than economists' forecast. Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis for the fifth month in a row.

On Thursday, major US stock indexes closed the bidding in different directions, as shares of consumer companies and banks fell after disappointing retail sales data raised concerns about retailers ’future profit and increased the likelihood of lower interest rates. However, the growth in technology stocks and optimism about trade negotiations between China and the United States supported the market.

The week ended with another significant increase. The reason was once again optimism about the prospects for reaching an agreement on trade between the United States and China. At the same time, investors acted out mixed US data: industrial production in January fell by 0.6%, while economists expected an increase of 0.3%. At the same time, the data on consumer sentiment for February exceeded expectations (the consumer sentiment index was 95.5 compared with 91.2 in January and analysts predicted 94.5 points).

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17 Feb 18:57 Oil market perspectives

Last week a series of news came that literally shook the oil market. On Monday, a forecast was made by the Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates, Suhail Al Mazrui, that the world oil market will reach a state of balance between supply and demand in the first quarter of this year. He said he was pleased with the fact that the agreement on limiting oil production concluded between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, was being observed. Mazrui also said that it is too early to discuss the issue of compensating for the reduction in oil production in some exporting countries. This refers to Iran, Libya and Venezuela. In these countries, oil production declined significantly due to political instability and the introduction of trade sanctions.

On the same day, quite a strong statement was made by the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, that the reduction in oil production by OPEC + countries created preferences for the USA, and this became a strategic threat to the development of the Russian oil industry. Sechin points out that the share of Russian oil in the world market is falling - from 16.3% in 1990 to 12% in 2018, consumers will be reoriented from Russian oil to other varieties, which may make the Russian companies irreversible loss of market share. Sechin insists that American oil workers have dramatically increased production due to lower tax burden and stimulate investment. According to Sechin, American producers will be able to dramatically increase oil production and exports in late 2019 - early 2020, when pipelines from the shale oil production center to ports in the Gulf of Mexico will be put into operation.

On Tuesday, BP CEO Bob Dudley told CNBC at an energy forum in Cairo that a series of increasing risks could trigger a “crisis” on the energy market in the coming months. The head of BP pointed to the "tragic circumstances" in Venezuela, the uncertainty in Libya, the growth of production in the Permian Basin and the impact of US sanctions against Iran. According to Dudley, the price of oil in the range of $ 50 to $ 65 per barrel is “good for producers and consumers.”

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. retains its bullish oil outlook. The bank still predicts that the price of Brent crude oil will reach $ 67.50 per barrel next quarter due to healthy demand and supply constraints from OPEC and its allies, including Russia, were written by analysts at Goldman in a report on February 12. This estimate is about 7% higher than the current price level. Brent quotes are under pressure from concerns that shale oil production growth will undermine OPEC + production cuts and that the US-China trade war will weaken demand. However, Goldman analysts believe investors' concern is excessive. The magnitude of the expected slowdown in global growth is unjustified, and the decline in production in 2019 exceeded forecasts, the bank said.

At the end of the week, Houston Chronicle, based on Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie, identified three countries with the most active geological exploration. The deep-sea parts of Latin American Guyana accounted for a quarter of 8.8 billion barrels, open to the world at the end of last year. According to Rystad Energy, globally, approximately 80% of the hydrocarbons found in 2018 were found on the shelf of the company. Shale areas in the United States also showed significant increase. Experts highlight the Permian basin in the western part of the US state of Texas. Oil and gas corporations and independent players in 2018 spent on the acquisition of shale areas about $ 35 billion. Now ExxonMobil, Chevron and other companies are consistently increasing stocks in the States. Russia was in the top three thanks to the discovery of a field in the shallow part of the Arctic, not far from ongoing natural gas production projects.

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10 Feb 11:58 Trends at cryptocurrency market

The dynamics of the cryptocurrency market remains rather sluggish.

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10 Feb 11:22 Waiting for US-China dialog

The previous week began for the US stock market with moderate growth, the main reason was the rise in prices of the technology segment before the publication of quarterly reports Alphabet (GOOG).

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10 Feb 11:18 Oil to continue growth

The past week began with the information that oil prices had risen to the maximum since the beginning of the year.

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