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25 Oct 20:32 The week of negative dynamics

The past week began with reports that the participants in the OPEC + deal agreed to continue the implementation of the agreement in full.

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19 Oct 21:33 Report season to start

The hopes for the approval of a new stimulus package in the US supported optimism in the market on Monday ahead of the start of corporate reporting season.

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19 Oct 21:26 Libya to come back at the market

Last week began with a sharp drop in oil prices, the main reason was the resumption of production at the largest field in Libya.

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11 Oct 20:17 Trump's factor

The past week began for the US stock market with noticeable positive dynamics.

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11 Oct 20:14 Oil at the price of water

The previous Monday began with 6% growth in oil prices. The price of December futures for North Sea Brent crude oil rose by 5.75% - to $ 41.53 per barrel, the cost of November futures for American WTI - by 6.32%, to $ 39.41 per barrel. The main reason for the noticeable positive dynamics was the correction: oil prices dropped noticeably over the previous week and became more attractive for investors. Another reason for the rise in oil prices is a strike by oil and gas workers in Norway, which resulted in the closure of four Equinor fields. The Norwegian Petroleum and Gas Association said the strike could reduce production capacity in Norway by 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or 8% of total production.

On Tuesday the information appeared that the decline in oil production in the United States was below the indicators of 1931. This was reported by Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten. At the moment, the number of operating wells is 11,000, despite the fact that last year there were twice as many oil rigs, namely 22,000, and in 2018 - 25,000. 2014 was a record year for the United States with 45,535 wells. Many market participants have high hopes for the development of the Permian oil and gas basin in Texas. According to various estimates, it may contain from 782 million to 160 billion barrels of black gold. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is in the lead in the list of countries with the richest deposits of raw materials (267 billion). In second place is the United States (263 billion). They are followed by Russia (181 billion), Canada (158 billion), Iran (135 billion), Iraq and Brazil (110 billion each), Venezuela (72 billion) and Mexico (68 billion). However, it should be borne in mind that we are talking about very rough and inaccurate estimates.

In the middle of the week, there was alarming news from OPEC. Experts were concerned about the resumption of oil supplies to the world market by Libya. The North African state received such an opportunity as a result of a temporary truce, which was reached between the forces of Fayez Sarraj and Khalifa Haftar. The latter retreated to Sirth, and the troops of Sarraj, with the support of the militants transferred by Turkey from Syria, intended to inflict a defeat on the field marshal there too, but Egypt intervened in the matter. President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi delivered an ultimatum to Tripoli: if the line is crossed in the Sirte region, then Egypt will send its troops into Libya. The parties to the conflict eventually stopped. Oil from Libya has begun to appear on the international market, which could lead to the disruption of the OPEC + deal, which was so difficult to reach for many players. It got to the point that some countries agreed to take on part of the prohibitive quotas of others in order to maintain a balance. This happened, for example, with Mexico and the United States. Washington had to convince the oil business of Mexico so that the official Mexico City supported the OPEC + format to reduce production. Now that the volume of oil entering the market actually outside the framework of the OPEC + deal is becoming more and more, it is increasingly difficult to restrain the parameters of the agreement.

In this regard, traders urged "to prepare for a barrel of oil at the price of water." At the same time, the reasoning is as follows: oil storage facilities are packed to capacity, the oil market is oversaturated, many countries are reintroducing self-isolation and quarantine regimes, which reduces economic activity and demand for energy resources. If measures are not taken to preserve the OPEC + deal, then "oil at the price of water" risks becoming not only a figure of speech. In addition, OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil demand in the long term due to COVID-19 - by 2040 by 1 million barrels per day, to 109.3 million barrels. In 2020, demand is expected to drop to 90.7 million barrels per day from 99.7 million in 2019. From 2021, the demand for oil will return to growth and will reach 103.7 million barrels per day by 2025.

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